Dear Mr. Fantasy: 'Baseball Prospectus 2008'

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IF NOT THE BIBLE for the national pastime's fans, "Baseball Prospectus" is at least the Rosetta Stone: It has an uncanny ability to convert previous statistics into usually spot-on predictions for the coming year.

At the height of fantasy baseball draft season, and two weeks before the Nationals open up their new ballpark, Express picked the brain of "Prospectus" editor Steven Goldman, who will speak at Politics & Prose on March 17, about the coming season.

» EXPRESS: I read that you guys like what's going on with Nats. Can you walk through what you see in the organization and how it's growing with ownership finally in place?
» GOLDMAN: One thing happened to the Nats as they made their sort of very unclean break from being the Montreal/Puerto Rico Expos is the previous management deprived the team of anything like a future. If the team that arrived in Washington wasn't an expansion team, it was pretty close. Jim Bowden, despite the occasional flight of fancy, has done kind of an interesting job really assembling pieces from across the majors as they wait for the farm system to grow, and the farm system seems to be up and coming.

» EXPRESS: Do you like idea of adding Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes — two players teams were trying to get rid of — as the right idea for the Nats?
» GOLDMAN: There are two kinds of steals when you make deals in baseball. One is the salary dump. The other is a team looks at a player and says, "I don't think he's going to do it" or "He's kind of jerk and don't want him around." Those are the kind of deals you look back 50 years later and say, "What were they thinking?" And I think the Nats certainly have that kind of possibility. With Dukes, the Rays made the right decision because it was clear Dukes clearly wasn't going to blossom in that environment.

» EXPRESS: On the other side, one young National everyone is sold on and has no issues with is Ryan Zimmerman. From an outsider's perspective, where does Zimmerman fit in with the David Wrights of the world — the 25-and-under stars that seem to be developing?
» GOLDMAN: I think he's up there but he's not to the level of someone like Wright. Wright is giving you the glove and the bat at close to an MVP level. Zimmerman hasn't quite had that season yet. His 2007 was not quite as good as his 2006. I'm not saying he's going backward or a disappointment. My only point is, offensively, he is not quite at the level of Wright, but nobody has any business complaining about that.

» EXPRESS: "Prospectus" is famous for projections. One big question for Zimmerman and the rest of the Nationals is nobody knows what the new ballpark plays like. How do you factor that in?
» GOLDMAN: Nate Silver is the daddy of PECOTA, our projection system. What he and [fellow "Prospectus" editor] Clay Davenport do is making educated guesses based on the field dimensions, based on the weather conditions and environment factors in D.C. We can make a guess, whether those guesses are right we won't know until a few games are played there. They certainly could be open to revisions.

» EXPRESS: It's hard to imagine it a more pitcher-friendly park than what RFK was.
» GOLDMAN: Definitely true. RFK was one of the harsher environments in baseball. As a historian, I always found that ironic because for a long time the Senators played in Griffith Stadium and that was just impossible. These players should get a fairer shake.

» EXPRESS: What do you make of Chad Cordero? Is he a really good closer or one who's pretty good and gotten lucky, or somewhere in between?
» GOLDMAN: He doesn't overwhelm me. I think you move him. The ability to find good relievers is a little overrated. I think Cordero could serve a greater service to the franchise by bringing in pieces that will be part of that next great Nationals team.

» EXPRESS: Staying in the division, one team that made offseason headlines is the Mets. They made the big trade: They got Johan Santana. Is Santana enough to shake off that funk they were in last season? That was a horrific collapse.
» GOLDMAN: I think you worry about the funk they are in this year. It's a brand-new funk — is that a James Brown album title or what? The Mets, on one level, got an absolute steal. When you get Johan Santana for the package of players they gave up, none of whom is going to be a rising star, obviously you do it. On the other level, the Mets as a team are 600 years old. With the guys they dealt, where are their replacements? They put themselves in a position of really gambling. We are already seeing that gamble not paying off. The Mets working on an entire alphabet of injured guys. They could get buried early.

» EXPRESS: This is a question you have to ask every year: Is this the Cubs' year?
» GOLDMAN: Ha. You know there would be a poetry to it. One hundred years even [since they last won the World Series]. In a sense, I'm rooting for it. There was a faint possibility last year that it could be the Cubs and Red Sox. As someone who likes the romance, the poetry and the irony of baseball, that would have been great regardless of who won. They have a chance, they really do. We have to see what happens with the starting rotation.

» EXPRESS: People throw around the 1,000-run plateau with the Tigers. Is that realistic?
» GOLDMAN: A lot has to go right for them to do that. Not that many teams score 1,000 runs. The resemblance to the 1927 Yankees is a little bit exaggerated

» EXPRESS: Does "Prospectus" rate Alex Rodriguez as the best player, or are there other players at that same level we don't hear about?
» GOLDMAN: I think the thing that is really disappointing is because fans and media are tied up on A-Rod's personality, [contract] negotiations, relationship with Derek Jeter — all this tabloidy stuff — we react to him more like he is Britney Spears or Lindsay Lohan than as a great baseball player, and the fact is he is ridiculously good. He is probably the best player in baseball by a decent margin and that is something not said enough.

» EXPRESS: There is a talented group of young pitchers getting lot attention. Do you think Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Clay Buchholz are the real deal or are they one year way?
» GOLDMAN: The real interesting thing is with the Yankees, as long as George Steinbrenner has owned the team, is that there has been this organizational distrust of young pitchers. They never trusted young pitching and are always impatient with it. And there is a skill to it, bringing up a pitcher into the major leagues. Someone compared this to the Orioles of the '70s. The thing is, the Orioles had "The Oriole Way." They knew what they were doing. I'm not sure the Yankees do. The Red Sox were careful with Buchholz last fall. These guys have all the talent in the world

» EXPRESS: Is there any hope for the long-since-gone "Oriole Way?"
» GOLDMAN: "The Oriole Way" is a relic in history like the Whig party or something. It's sad. It was such a great franchise. I think they made the right decision with [trading] Erik Bedard. Adam Jones will be a really good player. That could give them two good outfielders with Nick Markakis. That's a start.

» EXPRESS: Speaking of rebuilding, who is the next Ryan Braun? Who is going to blossom this year?
» GOLDMAN: I'm psyched about Chris Marrero. It's neat to see the Nats have this guy who is a real slugger, a real pure home threat to come along. I'm not sure there is a position in baseball he can play besides water cooler. He may be a future DH.

» EXPRESS: Who else?
» GOLDMAN: The two best prospects unfortunately have road blocks in front of them: Jay Bruce of the Reds and Evan Longoria with the Rays. The thing about Bruce is that he blossomed into the best prospect in baseball — but almost automatically, [manager] Dusty Baker isn't going to be a fan. They just signed Corey Patterson. Before, they talked about Kenny Lofton — and he's almost an AARP member. In the case of Longoria, the only question is purely financial. They could hold him back eight weeks to have him another year before arbitration. With a small market, that's a valid concern.

» EXPRESS: I heard a colleague on ESPN say Ichiro is a candidate to slip. Any others?
» GOLDMAN: It's possible. PECOTA has some kind of Ichiro bias. It doesn't like that style of player for reasons I'm not entirely clear about. There are going to be guys who are going to dip but not necessarily be bad, just come down to Earth. Magglio Ordonez, who had what could be MVP-type season in most years, is not a .360 hitter. Jorge Posada — a tremendous player at .275 — hit .330. I don't see that happening again.

» EXPRESS: You think Tom Glavine or Greg Maddux have anything left?
» GOLDMAN: They are two very different cases. I think Glavine is sort of done. Maddux is fortunate to be pitching in Petco Park [in San Diego]. I might put up a 4.0 ERA in Petco; it's a very friendly park for pitchers

» EXPRESS: Last question: pick a World Series and winner?
» GOLDMAN: Why don't we say Red Sox-Dodgers.

» EXPRESS: Joe Torre gets another shot at the Red Sox?
» GOLDMAN: That's my thought. I think Red Sox win again. The Dodgers are based on Torre making calls at third base and left field, where he [shouldn't] go with decrepit veterans, and I'm not positive that he is going to do that.

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