WITH OPENING DAY JUST over a week away, big-league rosters are finally starting to take shape. That means it's time to prove you have what it takes to compile the best team possible — even if you have to cheer for Alex Rodriguez, at left. Sadly, not every pick is going to be a home run (not everyone is A-Rod, after all), but Express picked the brain of "Baseball Prospectus" editor Christina Kahrl to come up with this list of strategies. What are you waiting for? Draft day is here.
Cardinal Rule
So, you have the first pick in the draft. Every big-leaguer is at your fingertips. Where to start? The Yankees' Rodriguez had 35 homers and 121 RBI in a down year. But there is Minnesota fireballer Johan Santana, the American League's Cy Young winner two of the past three years. Talk about a tough decision, right? Not really, Kahrl said. Your list should begin and end with St. Louis slugger Albert Pujols, who is "the best hitter in baseball"; Kahrl said.
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Express' Chris Mincher recaps the fantasy football season.
WELL, THE SEASON'S over. I've been evaluating players all season long, I thought I'd turn my special mystic evaluation powers onto myself for a change. How did I do? Well, I got some right. Aaaannnd I probably really messed things up for a few of you, who likely were disgusted by my advice and aren't reading this column anymore. To which I say: Ha! I'm glad I ruined your team, you non-reader, you!
Anyway, here's a recap of some of my most proud predictions, and some picks which showed why I'm not currently working as an NFL scout. To start, a few in which I was right, they're ...
GOOD:
Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys
What I said: "No quarterback throwing to wide receiver Terrell Owens should have less than an 80 QB rating."
What happened: Romo finished up with a 95.1 QB rating, is going to the Pro Bowl, yada yada, you know the rest.
Travis Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
What I said: "Henry has never disappointed as a starter, and this year will be no different. As quarterback Vince Young gets more comfortable letting the ball leave his hands, Henry should find fewer defenders taking numbers and standing in line to tackle him, so his season should be more than respectable."
What happened: Henry scrambled for more than 1,200 rushing yards in just 13 games — that's an average of 92 yards on the ground per start — at a very impressive 4.5 yards a carry. Hey, Buffalo, don't look now, but that's better than Willis McGahee.
Is your fantasy football team a nightmare? Express' Chris Mincher gives his advice on who to play and who to bench.
WELL, IT'S ALMOST all over; or already over, depending. Did you win? No? Well, serves you right for not taking my advice. (Admit it, you ignored all of it, didn't you, you cocky ungrateful swine.) Perhaps you're even in the championship for your league this week, in which case, I can't help you — c'mon, it's the last week of the season, no one has any idea of who will play and won't. The team's quarterback could be reduced to squibb-kick duties for all anyone knows. Good luck.
For most of you, however, it's time to start thinking about who you're going to think about until your next draft. Certain players to Google for news every now and then, scan sports round-ups for their name, browse the transaction wire scouting them out. The guys that are going to be the super-sleepers that awe your friends and forever silence any doubters as to the depth of your football knowledge. Because you obviously have to do something different; otherwise, you wouldn't have lost this year, loser. (Winners, I'm not talking to you.)
Mike Anderson, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Anderson, a 1,000-yard-back last season, was barely used this season as the Ravens rightfully gave Jamal Lewis a full year to prove he could still do the job. Instead, Lewis continued to run like the field was a large vat of custard, and he'll likely be cut after the season. Meanwhile, the seemingly obvious person to take the job, Musa Smith, seems to have deflated balloons for neck muscles.
TAKE? Anderson's experienced, but in perfect health, having only started 51 games in seven seasons. If Lewis is shown the door, Anderson — who played well in his limited chances this year — could be well-positioned to do big things in 2008.
Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
Is your fantasy football team a nightmare? Express' Chris Mincher gives his advice on who to play and who to bench.
IF YOU FANTASY FOOTBALLERS have been bounced out of your playoffs already, don't quit just yet, just remember: consolation bracket = salvaged pride. If you're still in the playoffs, well ... good luck, you probably know what you're doing and don't need my help.
But whether you're still in it or trying to win your way into 5th place, if you're in a keeper league, you have big decisions looming on the horizon. Mainly — as most leagues are set up this way — you're probably going to have to decide who you're retaining and who you are going to send back into free agency. It's tough, because sometimes you just have to face the future on some previously tried-and-true veterans ... unfortunately, they're not always worth it. And, often, it's better to hold onto those rookies who may not be blowing up just yet, but will be primed for the spotlight next year. Here are some ideas of who I'm talking about:
Artose Pinner, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Here's how good Vikings backup Pinner has been in Chester Taylor's absence: Not only is he averaging 125 yards when he starts — and 4.6 yards a carry overall this season — but he's been able to do all this while overcoming the karmic burden of having his official NFL photo feature him in a Lions jersey.
TAKE? Usual starter Taylor is having a fine season as well, so the best role Pinner can work his way into is a shareback — which is a good fit for coach Brad Childress' system, but not a good fit for any fantasy football system.
Tarvaris Jackson, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Note to starter Brad Johnson: This weekend, put on a suit, pull up a full length mirror, drag over your desk, sit down, look straight into it and talk. You'll have to get used to it if you're to have any shot whatsoever at landing some satellite-TV hometown-Minnesota station announcing gig. Perhaps the first subject for you to strongly opine on can be the promising start of power-armed Alabama-State-standout Jackson. Uh oh, Brad. Stiffen up that trembling lip. OK, let's try this again ...
TAKE? Jackson's got a ton of talent around him, with two good running backs and five good receiving options. His production might be a little mediocre at the start, but with that supporting cast, the development should be quicker than, say, Bruce Gradkowski's was.
Is your fantasy football team a nightmare? Express' Chris Mincher gives his advice on who to play and who to bench.
IF YOU'RE JUST entering your fantasy football playoffs, or have since marched on to the second round, it's time to start keeping an eye on NFL roster moves for possible free agent pickups. Not because you need these players on your team — your team is awesome, so ride it out — but because it's time to deploy preventative drop-adding (PDA). In other words, if something bad happens to the starters on the other teams in the playoffs, you want to make sure that there's no one worthwhile available for them to pick up and sub in. With your bench packed with guys you'll never use, your opponent can't use them either. So, guard against these emergency fill-ins who light it up out of nowhere and send an undeserving manager to the championship by finding a spot to store them away.
Derek Anderson, QB, Cleveland Browns
Are you surprised that Charlie Frye didn't turn around the Browns this year and make them into playoff contenders? If you answered yes, thanks for reading, Charlie Frye! Hey Charlie, if you happen to have an extra bench spot on your fantasy team — or are looking at potential 2007 sleepers for your keeper league — you've seen firsthand (from the bench) how promising your replacement looks. Got to hand it to him, Chuck, he looks like a real quarterback out there. Much better than you. You stink.
TAKE? The Browns won't win until they find where they left the rushing portion of their playbook — did you guys try checking under the couch? — but in the meantime, Anderson at least knows how to find both of his wide receivers.
Bo Scaife, TE, Tennessee Titans
First it was Erron Kinney, but his knee ligaments got folded like complex origami. Then it was Ben Troupe, but his ankle got cracked like someone wanted to make an omelet with it. Now it's Scaife, who gives quarterback Vince Young a consistent safe option ... and, considering the anonymous state of the Titans' wide receivers, it's hard to call any of Young's options safe.
TAKE? The guy can catch. But, most importantly, the guy can still stand after the game.
Ike Hilliard, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is the way the world ends for WR Michael Clayton, not with a bang, but with a partially torn medial collateral ligament in his left knee. That makes Hilliard the starter, whose world already ended with a whisper a long time ago.
TAKE? No!
Arlen Harris, RB, Detroit Lions
On tap for Lions running back Kevin Jones: surgery, rehabilitation, the PUP list in 2007, and then we won't know anymore, because none of us will care and the media will stop bothering to find out. In the meantime, the Lions turn to Harris.
TAKE? Wait wait wait, let us finish that sentence. Ahem, thank you. In the meantime, the Lions turn to Arlen Harris for the first four carries, but then they're down by 35 points, so they don't bother to run it anymore.
Aaron Moorehead, WR, Indianapolis Colts
With Brandon Stokley out with a bad case of tendon-mangle, Peyton Manning will be looking for more people to go in on his time-share quarterbacking philosophy. Could Moorehead — who, we must say, looks like doofus maximus in his official NFL photo — be the spark that reignites the Colts' offensive fire and finally propels them to the Super Bowl? We say: Not unless the Colts can trade him for Edgerrin James. (Howaboutit, Cards? Eh? What if we toss in Dominic Rhodes for your trouble?)
TAKE? Usually being the third receiver on the Colts nets the same stats as a good starting receiver on a middling team. But as teams chip away all day at the Colts' crumbling defense, all Moorehead is good for now is Reggie Wayne's bridge partner on the sidelines until the offense can retake the field.
Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images.
Is your fantasy football team a nightmare? Express' Chris Mincher gives his advice on who to play and who to bench.
IN MOST FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUES, the playoffs are already underway, and you're not likely to risk it all by tinkering with borderline players. You're going to play the guys who got you there; this is good, over-analyzing when its all on the line can end in nothing but crushing heartbreak, dashed dreams and an abysmal hole in your soul that sucks away happiness. Go with your gut.
However, those with keeper leagues have more things to focus on than just their lineup. Late-season depth chart alterations and forward-thinking replacements should be monitored for their potential to contribute next year. In some cases, the failures of today's starters might be indicative of a new direction next year. An ill-timed injury might give other players a chance to make their free-agent-to-be case to other teams. It might even be a veteran, whose experience might be called upon next season when his supporting cast starts from scratch.
While those should all earn your attention, the obvious situations to watch are those in which a rookie gets his first looks and tries out the ropes he'll have to master in 2007. When evaluating these players — like this next guy — ignore the stat line and, instead, gauge how far he is along the learning curve.
JAY CUTLER, QB, Denver Broncos
Sunday was evidence of the typical fallout when a rookie — in this case, Cutler — is made the starter and doesn't know who his playmakers are: Brandon "Who?" Marshall leading the team in receiving, Javon Walker and Stephen Alexander having the same number of catches, and Rod "Pass To Me Or I Retire" Smith finishing with one catch for six yards. (Ideally, benched quarterback Jake Plummer would use the rest of the season to start looking for another job, but it'll take at least that much time for him to get clean-shaven enough to present himself in interviews.)
TAKE? Attention Jay: Sure, your fourth-string fullback might be open for a 3-yard gain, but your job is to make the tough play in coverage. It's called football, son.
Is your fantasy football team a nightmare? Express' Chris Mincher gives his advice on who to play and who to bench.
THE TRADING DEADLINE has probably passed in your league, meaning you're stuck with what you got from here on out. It's kind of a scary feeling, but buck up — you've spent all season meticulously crafting your squad just for this moment. Or... you just got lucky, and now you need a few wins to secure one of the last playoff spots, but you have no solid players.
Clearly, Player B has cause for concern. But you cocky LT and Peyton Manning owners out there should be alarmed as well. How are you going to win playoff games if you're top starters get rested for the NFL playoffs? It might look intimidating in your lineup, but you might as well have drafted Quincy Carter as your top quarterback, as much good as it does you now.
That's why now is the time to start making sure you've got backups in place, in case the worst-case scenario comes to light. Be prepared, that's what the Boy Scouts always say. ("I know how to tie 398 different types of knots," is another thing they often say.) So here's a few guys that might still be sitting out in free agency that might be worth a bench spot while taking the wait-and-see approach. Better to have someone now, rather than desperately looking 10 minutes before gametime.
Is your fantasy football team a nightmare? Express' Chris Mincher gives his advice on who to play and who to bench.
IT'S PROBABLY GETTING close to the trading deadline in your league. In which case, you have to start thinking about three weeks down the road, when your playoffs will start. It's a problem every year when top players on the top NFL teams get sat to rest up for the playoffs — while sitting out your playoffs. You don't want to get bounced out of your league again because Peyton Manning, LaDanien Tomlinson and Javon Walker are all on clipboard duty while you scramble on the free-agent wires.
So take stock of the teams your players are on. If you've got a lot of guys whose teams will be locking up playoffs spots soon, you might want to deal for the top players on teams who will be fighting for playoff positioning all season long — and managers who need a boost now just to make the playoffs might be willing to part with guys whose value is a little more long-term. It's not always easy to make happen, and it hurts to lose those big names you've coveted all year long, but it's better than playing JP Losman in your championship game.
You also might want to get your hands on players whose teams will let them finish the year so as to gauge their value for next year. A lot of teams in transition ("in transition" meaning "that stink") will be evaluating who is worth keeping in their most crucial position — one of which is the Tennessee Titans, who will be taking a close look every week at this next guy.
Travis Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
After Chris Brown whined his way into three straight weeks of deactivation, coach Jeff Fisher named Henry the starter for the season. Henry has never been a disappointment as a starter — it should be no surprise that he was replaced by Willis McGahee in Buffalo two years ago, as benching their best players has been a Bills strategic mainstay since the Wade Phillips era — and this year, so far, has been no different, as exhibited by the 100-yard-rushing effort against the dominating Ravens defense last week.
TAKE? As quarterback Vince Young gets more comfortable letting the ball leave his hands, Henry should find fewer defenders taking numbers and standing in line to tackle him, so his respectable season could get even more respectable.
WITH THE IMPENDING return of some fantasy stars who got busted up early, you may be eager to get these guys back in your lineup. But there are a lot of factors to take into consideration before taking a guess on whether they'll be eased back slowly or immediately thrown in the mix. First: How much does the team need him to return? For example, the Seahawks are anticipating the availability of Shaun Alexander — but, at 5-3, they need to think of the longer playoff stretch and aren't under immediate pressure to win every game. No need to give him a full workload right away — especially after a big game by Maurice Morris.
Which brings us to the second to evaluate: How good is his backup? It's safe to say that Chiefs quarterback Trent Green won't be rushed back into the scheme of things, now that Damon Huard has the team winning and is putting up fantastic numbers. In fact, Huard could pull a Brady and keep the job as his own.
Lastly, here's a simple rule of thumb: the longer a guy has been out, the longer it will take to get him back in the scheme of things. Redskins receiver Santana Moss got banged around and missed last week, but if he isn't out for too long, he'll be on the field without missing much of a step or having any scaled-back role — the same scenario as for this next guy.
Joe Horn, WR, New Orleans Saints
Now that Horn's groin has healed from its rolled-dough state, he's ready to return following a brief rehab after two 100-yard games. But the injury has caused speculation that his 34-year-old body may be getting a little too stretchable to hold up the whole year.
TAKE? After spending five years among the NFL's elite receivers, Horn now finds himself the No. 2 option to ex-Hofstra-standout rookie-of-the-year shoo-in Marques Colston. That said, with two straight 300-yard passing games, quarterback Drew Brees is starting to like his new role as a gunslinger, and will use any viable targets he has.
Is your fantasy football team a nightmare? Express' Chris Mincher gives his advice on who to play and who to bench.
THERE HAVE BEEN A lot of rumors swirling about old quarterbacks being upgraded to newer models, but, after last week, fantasy-football fans can't help but wonder if there are some new, high-profile youngsters at risk as well. A few weeks ago, it would have been unthinkable, but after Houston backup Sage Rosenfels threw three touchdowns and Jaguars backup David Garrard beat the Eagles, fantasy managers are casting a wary eye toward David Carr of the Texans and Byron Leftwich in Jacksonville — both first-round draft picks not that long ago. Both quarterbacks can make good arguments to keep their jobs: Carr has a 94.3 QB rating, and Leftwich only has five turnovers this year. But, on the other hand, Rosenfels has a 108.1 QB rating, and Garrard hasn't been beat as a starter yet this year (and is 6-3 as a starter for his career).
In the end, it's unlikely either will lose his job in the next few weeks. But if Houston doesn't get a couple wins under its belt, or if the Jaguars continue to play below their playoff-hopeful expectations, anything can happen. That's the NFL, and smart fantasy owners will stay atop all these situations. That way, they won't be kicking themselves for dropping the ball and missing out on a chance to pick up someone like this next guy.
Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys
I had an interesting observation Sunday night when I saw Romo sidestep two blitzing defenders, skirt another tackle and then complete a pass. I turned to my friend, Igor, and noted, "Look! It's moving. It's alive. It's alive ... It's alive, it's moving! It's alive, it's alive, it's alive, it's alive, IT'S ALLLLIIIIIVVVE! MWAHHA HAHAHAHAHAH!"
TAKE? No quarterback throwing to wide receiver Terrell Owens has had less than an 80 QB rating. Former starter Drew Bledsoe chose Option B: Not throw to Owens, get a 69.2 QB rating and get benched. With nine catches by Owens last week, it's safe to say that Romo has learned from his predecessor.
Chris Perry, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Because three of the Bengals' backup wide receivers are out with injury, Perry is on the verge of achieving his dream since he was drafted in the first round three years ago: to be occasionally used as a backup, short-yardage pass-catcher. Congrats, Chris!
TAKE? Perry's a playmaker, which the Bengals need more of. They just need to find a way to get him on the field.
Addison Road
